Regarding a discussion on the KurzweilAI board:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/forums/topic/singularity-utopia-is-bonkers
Amidst the nasty comments Extropia DaSilva raised an issue that needs to be addressed and I have done so. See below the copy of my post which I initially posted in the above KurzweilAI fourm debate.
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KURZWEILAI POST:
There is one point Extropia made which has been nagging at my consciousness and I wanted to address it.
Extropia DaSilva claimed many journals/periodicals (or whatever) will contain over-exaggerated claims regarding sci-tech progress (this was not the case in the links I cited).
It is alleged that over-exaggeration can occur due to researchers and publishers in the sci-tech arena wanting to make their gains seem better than they are so they can acquire increased funding or revenue.
If this does happen, over-exaggeration to gain greater funding/revenue, is this a bad thing?
MORE FUNDING AND INTEREST EQUATES SPEEDIER AND GREATER GAINS.
We ARE very close to a tipping point therefore the balance is delicate and slight things can have BIG consequences.
Increased funding will increase the rate of progress.
This is a classic example of self-fulfilling prophecy (despite constantly mentioning self-fulfilling prophecy I imagine many of you have not yet read up on it).
The claims maybe untrue, or over-exaggerated, but the very nature of the untrue claims actually cause the claims to become true: it is a self-fulfilling prophecy whereby actions and expectations cause increased funding, which allows for greater research, which increases the rate of progress, thus the initial allegedly untrue claims subsequently become true - fantastical targets are met.
You can do anything if you put your mind to it.
My utopian vision is not really a case of mind over matter because the references I cited were true. Self-fulfilling prophecy in this cases works against the truth of utopia, because untruthful expectations regarding slow progress cause a decrease in funding therefore due to the decreased funding progress IS slower than expected.
Please don't mess things up with your negativity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy
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Extropia responded with this:
I think that raising awareness of R+D in such important sci-tech areas as nanotech, biotech, information tech and cognitive sciences is definitely a good thing. I am also most decidedly for highlighting the expected benefits of such work, for the purpose of securing the funds needed to continue R+D. All I am saying is that one should be a bit wary of the rosy picture painted by the media when it comes to explaining sci-tech developments to the general public.
I think a modicum of skepticism actually helps. I think people would trust the word of someone who can exercise reasonable doubt rather than someone who swallows propaganda unthinkingly. But I guess we could quibble over what constitutes 'reasonable doubt'.
It is beyond doubt that promising work is being done in enabling the blind to see and the lame to walk, along with a host of other worthy projects. But while we can hope- and demonstrate that it is reasonable to hope- that this R+D shall yield commercially available medical technologies that are affordable to most people, we cannot say for sure that this best-case scenario will happen, or at least that it will happen any time soon. Who knows what technical or ethical barriers might come along in the future that postpone the widespread use of this stuff, perhaps indefinitely?
I have no problem with promoting the idea that it is possible we can achieve all you claim (unless, of course, something violates physical laws like some experts say Drexlerian nanotech does). I have a problem with saying it is inevitable as if nothing can go wrong. That is when reasonable hope has degenerated into wishy washy dreaming.
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And my response is:
Firstly there is no need to be wary of the references I cited, they are not over-exaggerations, and secondly skepticism often does more harm than good. If people were overly skeptical we would never have gone the the Moon because people would say it is impossible to go the the Moon. If you said, 2000 years ago, that one day in the future we will go to the Moon they would probably have thought you were a witch and stoned you to death. Narrow-minded skepticism or timid conservative views have greatly hindered the progress of civilization. NOW that we are so close, relatively speaking, to utopia, it is time to change. Open your mind.
Extropia you may say it is good to be wary and skeptical. Yes, we shouldn't accept things blindly but often skepticism does more harm than good. Sometimes skepticism is an irrational hindrance. You can be too doubting.
OK, Extropia, let's consider the regrown windpipe, via Stem Cells, which was first transplanted into a patient in 2008 and the patient didn't need to take anti-rejection drugs.
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BRISTOL UNIVERSITY Press release
Adult stem cell breakthrough
http://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2008/6010.html
The first tissue-engineered trachea (windpipe), utilising the patient’s own stem cells, has been successfully transplanted into a young woman with a failing airway. The bioengineered trachea immediately provided the patient with a normally functioning airway, thereby saving her life.
These remarkable results provide crucial new evidence that adult stem cells, combined with biologically compatible materials, can offer genuine solutions to other serious illnesses.
In particular, the successful outcome shows it is possible to produce a tissue-engineered airway with mechanical properties that permit normal breathing and which is free from the risks of rejection seen with conventional transplanted organs. The patient has not developed antibodies to her graft, despite not taking any immunosuppressive drugs. Lung function tests performed two months after the operation were all at the better end of the normal range for a young woman.
The pan-European team from the universities of Barcelona, Bristol, Padua and Milan report on this pioneering work in an article published early online and in an upcoming edition of The Lancet .
The loss of a normal airway is devastating, but previous attempts to replace large airways have met serious problems. The 30-year-old mother of two, suffering from a collapsed airway following a severe case of TB, was hospitalised in March 2008 with acute shortness of breath rendering her unable to carry out simple domestic duties or care for her children. The only conventional option remaining was a major operation to remove her left lung which carries a risk of complications and a high mortality rate.
Based on successful laboratory work previously performed by the team, and given the urgency of the situation, it was proposed that the lower trachea and the tube to the patient’s left lung (bronchus) should be replaced with a bioengineered airway based on the scaffold of a human trachea.
A seven-centimetre tracheal segment was donated by a 51-year-old transplant donor who had died of cerebral haemorrhage. Spain has a policy of assumed consent for organ donation. Using a new technique developed in Padua University, the trachea was decellularised over a six-week period so that no donor cells remained.
Stem cells were obtained from the recipient’s own bone marrow, grown into a large population in Professor Martin Birchall’s lab at the University of Bristol, and matured into cartilage cells (chondrocytes) using an adapted method originally devised for treating osteoarthritis by Professor Anthony Hollander at the University of Bristol.
The donor trachea was then seeded with chondrocytes on the outside, using a novel bioreactor which incubates cells, developed at the Politecnico di Milano, Italy, allowing them to migrate into the tissue under conditions ideal for each individual cell type. In order to replicate the lining of the trachea, epithelial cells were seeded onto the inside of the trachea using the same bioreactor.
Four days after seeding, the graft was used to replace the patient’s left main bronchus. The operation was performed in June 2008 at the Hospital Clinic, Barcelona, by Professor Paolo Macchiarini of the University of Barcelona.
Professor Macchiarini, lead author on the paper, said: “We are terribly excited by these results. Just four days after transplantation the graft was almost indistinguishable from adjacent normal bronchi. After one month, a biopsy elicited local bleeding, indicating that the blood vessels had already grown back successfully”.
Martin Birchall, Professor of Surgery at the University of Bristol, added: “Surgeons can now start to see and understand the very real potential for adult stem cells and tissue engineering to radically improve their ability to treat patients with serious diseases. We believe this success has proved that we are on the verge of a new age in surgical care”.
Anthony Hollander, Arthritis Research Campaign Professor of Rheumatology and Tissue Engineering at the University of Bristol, concurred: “This successful treatment manifestly demonstrates the potential of adult stem cells to save lives”.
The patient, Claudia Castillo, a young woman from Colombia but now living in Spain, had no complications from the operation and was discharged from hospital on the tenth post-operative day. She has remained well since and has a normal quality of life. She is able to care for her children, walk up two flights of stairs and occasionally go out dancing in the evenings.
She said: “Above all I would like to thank Dr. Macchiarini and his medical team who did the research, for the time and dedication they devoted to my case to make sure that everything turned out alright.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paolo_Macchiarini
- Dr. Macchiarini has contributed to the field of Regenerative medicine when in 2008 he performed the first Adult stem cell grown trachea transplant.[3][4][5] The first successful operation on a child followed in March 2010.[6]
The initial 2008 operation/proceedure has been repeated, which was mentioned in the so-called tabloid newspaper I cited, which EXTROPIA DASILVA objected to: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1299877/British-cancer-girl-saved-windpipe-stem-cells.html
SEE ALSO THIS FROM THE BBC dated 2010, 19th March although you will probably say the whole report is a fabrication even though it does refer to the initial 2008 operation, which was published in the Lancet.
Windpipe transplant success in UK childThis is the third such transplant to be done, and the first in a child
This is not mere experimentation on rats, these are successful human operations, at least 3 operations on humans, which admittedly is not many operations but this IS REAL PROGRESS. The BBC writes: "The latest operation is a significant advance on that pioneering work, as it is the first time a whole tissue engineered windpipe has been transplanted."
The supposed impossible can be achieved via dreams. Someone may say "I HAVE A DREAM" and then that dream may come true. Dreams are not "wishy washy". Dreams are not impossible and there is nothing to stop the awesome power of the human will. If we have enough confidence and optimism to do something we can do it. Black Slavery can be ended, stem cells can regrow tissues and organs. WE CAN CREATE Drexlerian nanotech! IT IS INEVITABLE! We can do anything if we put our minds to it.
When you are at the tipping point, or very close to one, the slightest events can cause extreme reverberations, it is therefore important to realize how your actions and expectations impact upon the world.
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Extropia responded with this:
If people have taken my cautionary words to mean that every news report is a gross exaggeration of what has been achieved and what it could mean, I must appologise. I definitely did not mean to imply any such thing. To take the story of the windpipe grown from stem cells, for example, I can see no hyperbole here. As far as I can tell we can trust that this kind of procedure will soon be in use. I would be surprised if, in 10 years time, this were not available in many hospitals.
But if we take this success and then extrapolate out into the future, we must tread carefully and be wary of going beyond the point of 'reasonable expectation'. For instance, follow my logic....
They can grow replacement wind pipes from stem cells now. Therefore:
They will be able to grow replacements for other parts of the body too.
Soon you will be able to replace any part of your body or brain as and when it needs replacing. You will live as long as you want to live.
Inevitably, the scientists will learn how to make better bodies and brains. We will get bodies and brains impervious to all diseases or breakdowns, and they will be regularly upgraded until we are perfect intellects and empaths.
Once we have perfect intellects and emotions, society's problems will be eliminated. Everyone will be happy. The world will be perfect.
Having made the world perfect, it is inevitable that the whole universe will be made perfect. After all, computing elements have been getting smaller and computers more ubiquitous and if we extrapolate out we see:
The ability to store bits on an atom...
To store bits on a proton..
On a string.
Everything in the vacinity of the solar system that can be used for computronium will be used for computronium...
And then the galaxy will likewise be converted...
and then the universe...
and then the multiverse...
And then the meta-multiverse...
Utopia will spread! It is inevitable! Perfection will infuse the mega-meta-multiverse!!
Or just maybe, I have wandered away from the realms of reasonable expectation and entered the realm of the totally nutty?
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And my response is:
So, Extropia, you write:
But if we take this success and then extrapolate out into the future, we must tread carefully and be wary of going beyond the point of 'reasonable expectation'. For instance, follow my logic....
They can grow replacement wind pipes from stem cells now. Therefore:
They will be able to grow replacements for other parts of the body too.
WHAT THEN IS YOUR OPINION REGARDING THESE TWO QUESTIONS.
1. Do you think one we will ever be able to regrow all parts of the body?
2. If you think all parts of the body can eventually be regenerated how long (years) do you think it will be before this happens? 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 years?
So you do agree with some tabloid pieces? The windpipe stem cell regrowth report was first tabloid ref on my list of refs. I feel it is misleading when you initially questioned my refs. Furthermore not all the refs were mainstream tabloid journalism.
Extropia when considering the above here are some links regarding 3D bio-printing to consider:
http://www.hplusmagazine.com/articles/bio/print-your-own-designer-organs
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1283709/Doctors-able-print-new-organs-transplant-patients.html?ITO=1490
http://www.wfubmc.edu/AboutUs/NewsArticle.aspx?id=7087
So in 2010 we can regrow bladders, windpipes, and repair eye damage. There may be more body parts stem cells can regrow/repair, I've not checked in depth.
Incidentally this is an interesting aspect of utopia :) http://utopia.cs.man.ac.uk/
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Extropia responded with this:
Singularity Utopia wrote: "1. Do you think one we will ever be able to regrow all parts of the body?"
I think we will, because there is a proof-of-principle demonstrating its feasibility. Every part of a human's body was grown. So I do not think it is absurd to imagine medical science might one day learn how to get stem cells to assemble any part of the body you care to name. Also, some animals demonstrate regenerative capabilities. Maybe we will come to understand why our bodies produce scar tissue instead of growing a new limb, and manipulate our genes so that we, too, regrow lost limbs.
Singularity Utopia wrote: "2. If you think all parts of the body can eventually be regenerated how long (years) do you think it will be before this happens? 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 years?"
How should I know? I am not aware of the full dimensions of research into this area. I cannot see all the obstacles that lie ahead, be they technical or ethical, nor can I visualise the leaps of imagination that might allow us to jump closer to the goal than previously seemed possible. If I could I would be out there making it happen. Honestly, I do not know when this will be achieved. If you really want me to pick a number...40? But it is just a guess.
Singularity Utopia wrote: "So you do agree with some tabloid pieces? The windpipe stem cell regrowth report was first tabloid ref on my list of refs. I feel it is misleading when you initially questioned my refs. Furthermore not all the refs were mainstream tabloid journalism."
But my concern was not with tabloid journalism per se but popular science writing. As for being misleading...Yeah maybe it was unfair to stereotype all pop science reporting as over-simplified and prone to exaggeration. Better to take each on a case-by-case basis. I see little wrong with the items you referred to, but then again if there were important details being left out of these reports I would not be in a position to know, since I am not actively working on this kind of research. I would have hoped, though, that any such omission would have resulted in a reply from an expert correcting this error. Since I have yet to see any such correction, I think that means these reports are completely trustworthy.
Not sure that we can take it as certain that utopia will be achieved by 2045 though. Or ever, come to think of it. After all, suppose somehow 2045 does turn out to be my perfect world. Since we all have different ideas regarding what we want out of life, a world that is perfect for me might be nightmarish for somebody else.
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And my response is:
Extropia you wrote:
Not sure that we can take it as certain that utopia will be achieved by 2045 though. Or ever, come to think of it. After all, suppose somehow 2045 does turn out to be my perfect world. Since we all have different ideas regarding what we want out of life, a world that is perfect for me might be nightmarish for somebody else.
The answer is we can each create our own world, or own universe. THINK BIG!
Anything is possible and utopia is definitely coming. Don't let your mind impose limitations.
Think big without limits. Reach beyond yourself, for the highest heights, and you will achieve wonders; but if you timidly fail to stretch your mind your reach will be small and low.
UTOPIA BY 2045 IS CERTAIN
Things such as this are becoming more common:
Stem cells save woman's leg http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/8033218/Stem-cells-used-to-save-womans-leg.html
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Extropia responded with this:
Positing no limits is not 'thinking big'. If there were no limits there could be no science or technology, because the laws of physics would spontaneously change from one moment to the next. After all, what would prevent this, if there are no limits? It is being able to operate within the limits of what is possible that enables a mind to understand the principles of nature, form ideas and turn them into technologies and other creative expressions. If 'anything were possible' I could not even post this reply, because by now who knows what could have happened? My computer might have suddenly turned into a big green rabbit perched on a tandem unicyle singing 'singularity by 2045 is certain' or infinite other things might have happened to it or me or anything or everything.
Ok, ok, 'utopia' might well be within the realms of possibility. But then, I have admitted as much already. I just do not see how anyone can say it is not just a possibility but a certainty. There is just so much that could go wrong, and quite a lot of it is beyond our control, at least for now.
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And my response is:
Extropia, you wrote:
Ok, ok, 'utopia' might well be within the realms of possibility. But then, I have admitted as much already. I just do not see how anyone can say it is not just a possibility but a certainty. There is just so much that could go wrong, and quite a lot of it is beyond our control, at least for now.
"Certainty" depends upon the strength of your will. It is about your will to make utopia happen; the idea is that you are so utterly determined to make it happen it therefore becomes inevitable, a certainty. I am certain about myself.
Are you certain? Oh yes I am absolutely positive! Maybe you are mistaken? No I have carefully examined all the possible pitfalls therefore I can NOW make utopia happen because I am sure of my ability. I have very carefully planned my actions in advance.
To be "certain" of utopia happening is to be "certain" of your ability to guide public perception of sci-tech progress. I am certain of myself. Progress is inevitable; the sci-tech evidence points to a sci-tech explosion of intelligence (in all forms). The aspect people disagree upon is the time-frame. My rational and unshakable confidence in my ability to guide public opinion makes me certain of my time-frame. Maybe it is a wild boast, or delusional, or even "bonkers" to state I can help nudge sci-tech into a utopian conclusion by 2045 at the latest.
Only "time" will tell whether I was bonkers or not. We are on a tipping point, or close to one, therefore when things are in the balance, at the tipping point, not much effort is needed to tip things one way or another. A few strategically placed words here and there, a slight nudge, can ensure utopia. We can nudge things into a utopian positive feedback. The power of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy has been entering your awareness. You are now beginning to accept the powerful validity of how a Self Fulfilling Prophecy can be used to to create utopia by 2045.
I can feel how public opinion is changing within the transhuman/Singularitarian community because people are beginning to realize they have the power to make utopia happen.
Certainty is self-belief. Are you sure of yourself, or do you doubt yourself? If you are sure of yourself then you may say I think therefore I am cogito ergo sum and then via your thinking you can see the evidence is before your eyes. YOU THINK, and the question is this: what is the conclusion of thinking. Is "thinking" rational? Is utopia rational. Is it rational to want the world to be utopia? Or maybe you feel it is rational to desire dystopia?
Rationality will prevail. Optimism is rational. The power of our minds is rational. Utopia is rational. "Certainty" regarding our strong desire for utopia is rational. The certainty regarding the arrival of utopia is unquestionable. There is no doubt. WE ARE AWARE. We are unstoppable.
PS. Thinking big without limits, where everything is possible, it is all about control. Power is useless is you cannot control it. Humans will create the rules and limits in accordance with their desires.
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Extropia responded with this:
Do I want utopia? I would have thought my name would be a clue that I advocate another kind of society. I quote from 'the Principles of Extropy':
"Open societies avoids utopian plans for "the perfect society", instead appreciating the diversity in values, lifestyle preferences, and approaches to solving problems. In place of the static perfection of a utopia, we might imagine a dynamic "extropia" — an open, evolving framework allowing individuals and voluntary groupings to form the institutions and social forms they prefer".
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And my response is:
'll rephrase the question: The choice is either utopia or dystopia; what do you choose?
Utopia can be an "open society" inline with Extropian principles. Extropian principles are contradictory because "Extropian principles" state Extropians avoid plans for perfect utopian societies but then they set out their ideal vision of society (their plan), which they want to see implemented.
The perfect society from the Extropian viewpoint is one where diversity of values, lifestyle preferences, and approaches to solving problems is satisfied. A dynamic "extropia" (an open, evolving framework allowing individuals and voluntary groupings to form the institutions and social forms they prefer) is merely another way to describe utopia.
All utopias will be realized.
I'll rephrase the question: The choice is either utopia or dystopia; what do you choose?
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Extropia and Singularity Utopia finally reached agreement:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/forums/topic/escape-velocity
http://extropiadasilva.wordpress.com/2010/12/08/escape-velocity/
Read the unedited full discussion on KurweilAI:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/forums/topic/singularity-utopia-is-bonkers
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Whenever someone realizes how their expectations change reality we see the tide of opinion turning with greater speed. Expectations are especially powerful when things teeter on the edge of uncertainty, because when things are precariously balanced the slightest bit of effort can cause things to tip one way or another. We can move mountains merely via a few simply key events. A few strategically placed words here and there can dramatically alter the path of history. We are changing the future via these comments, and with greater awareness of how we change the future, the changes become more dramatic. UTOPIA IS COMING. Feel the power of the the Singularity. Imagine what the future will be like. You can make your wildest most special dream come true.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy