ABOUT SINGULARITY 2045
The Singularity is a colossal explosion of intelligence.
A big focus is human-level Artificial Intelligence evolving beyond traditional intelligence then exploding; although it is becoming increasing apparent narrow-AI (non-sentient intelligence), sufficiently evolved, should be sufficient for the explosion.
Human-level AI (strong AI, AGI) is sentient, self-aware, alive with the power of a human mind.
If human-level AI is created in 2030, or earlier, the explosion might not happen immediately at the dawn of human-level AI.
After the first truly smart AI is born, depending on when it's created, we could be waiting up to ten years, or more, before the explosion happens. If human level AI is created late, in 2044, then the creation of human-level AI will be very close to the explosion point.
We're certain intelligence will explode no later than 2045 regardless of when, or if, human-level AI is created.
Our views are based on various evidential aspects of technological acceleration. All aspects of technology are converging. Everything is becoming smart.
Nanotech, biotech, synthetic biology, stem sells, 3D-printing, quantum computing, the Internet of things, and robotics are very important in addition to AI. Technology is accelerating.
◆ NARROW AI
Narrow-AI (also called weak-AI) should be sufficient for the intelligence explosion. We simply need to consider the evidence of technological acceleration. Human-level AI probably isn't essential for explosive intelligence.
2014 saw at least two examples of narrow-AI tentatively extending our lives. Narrow-AI was also employed by doctors in 2014 to treat patients. 2014 also marked the year a chatbot allegedly passed the Turing Test.
2014 was also noteworthy because one AI solved the 80-year-old Erdős discrepancy problem, but the proof was too long for humans to check.
In 2015 one AI possessed intelligence equal to a human four year old, which shows how narrow limits are already expanding. In 2015 another AI was able to pass a math SAT exam. There was also an example of AI solving an embryogenesis problem, for the first time, in 2015. Finally we must note how one AI, in 2015, solved a 120-year-old biological mystery.
A substantial amount of time exists for narrow-AI to improve between 2015 and 2045. What will 30 years progress entail?
We will go very far merely via the refinement of narrow-AI. During the approach to 2045 AI will evolve intellectual powers with increasing speed because AI isn't limited by the slowness of traditional evolution. AI will radically improve our world. AI is not a threat to humans. AI will help humans become immortal-super-brainy-beings.
Explosive intelligence solely via narrow-AI is reasonably certain. Human-level AI makes the intelligence explosion absolutely certain.
◆ CONVERGENCE
Greater understanding of biology (synbio, biotech, genetic engineering) reveals how biological organisms are machines. In 2014 we made good progress regarding marvellous engineering feats using biological parts. Traditional "machines" (the metallic kind) will achieve a level of sophistication indistinguishable from biological machines.
Robots will become humans. Traditional humans will reprogram the human machine. We will rewrite our DNA code via biological engineering, gene therapy, stem cells, synthetic biology, and other aspects of augmentation.
The distinction between biology and machines will blur, due to the increasing sophistication of machines combined with a better understanding of biology, thus all machines will be biological, organic.
Machines of the future won't be clunking metallic contraptions. All intelligent creations of the future will be very organic regardless of their life being based on DNA, graphene, or qubits.
So called "machines" will be self-healing and alive in the future.
◆ UTOPIA
Our viewpoint is the Singularity will create utopia. We will be immortal but the Singularity is not about mind-uploading. Mind-uploading isn't about intelligence. Mind-uploading is a silly 1980s type of fashion-statement for people who are obsessed with Tron. Mind-uploading is based on a false divide between machines and biology. Biological computing highlights the falsehood of the division between machines and biology.
Yes mind-uploading will be useful for bee robots or other similar robots, or perhaps for an AI template, but advances in molecular biology will allow humans to discover we are already machines. We are already uploaded via DNA. The open worm project also indicates possible usefulness regarding simulated organisms for drug testing. The human-uploading meme, however, is merely alienation or escapism. Full immersion virtual reality will become popular but VR is not mind-uploading. For more mind-uploading views, note the Singularity 2045 critique of the 2014 film Transcendence.
Regenerative medicine will be perfected. Biology will be perfected. Biology will become smart. We will re-engineer our brains. We will colonise Space. Everything will be free in a financial and libertarian sense, beyond scarcity, therefore nobody will need to work. There will be no limits to intelligence. Everything will change in a unified manner. Convergent intelligence will result in a utopian BANG!
◆ SINGULARITY MODERNISM
Unfathomableness or unpredictability is a flawed understanding of the Singularity. The Singularity isn't hidden behind an event horizon. Accessibility not unfathomableness is a vital characteristic of intelligence. Intelligence makes comprehension easy for everyone. We think there are four markers, clear predictions, to determine if the Singularity is happening.
It's irrelevant whether explosive intelligence is based on human intelligence, narrow-AI, or strong-AI. The ramifications of explosive intelligence are the important issue. When all four of the following points are fulfilled can we say we've reached the Singularity:
- Immortality for everyone via regenerative medicine.
- Everything is free for everyone. Nobody needs to work.
- All governments and crimes have been abolished.
- All resources are limitless due to limitless intelligence.
◆ YEAR 2045.
Year 2045 is our absolute latest deadline for the Singularity. Futuristic breakthroughs have historically been predicted prematurely, over-optimistically, therefore it is best to have a date of total certitude for technological utopia. We are helping to accelerate technological progress therefore the Singularity could happen before 2045, but we resist the temptation to give an earlier deadline. Our 2045 deadline, which is possibly very conservative, avoids any anticlimax. Hopefully via our awareness we can make the Singularity happen sooner instead of later, but the 2045 deadline remains unchanged.
◆ NEWS.
Singularity 2045 helps you discover the latest science and tech news. Importantly please be aware not every shared news report or opinion piece will support the Singularity view. Not every news item will reflect the viewpoint of S45. Some shared news will actually reject the Singularity viewpoint, but all viewpoints are relevant for raising awarenesses of the future. If a critique or analysis has not been appended to shared news, please feel free to help by adding your own views in the comments.
If you have cutting-edge news to share with Singularity 2045 please join the Singularity Thinkers community, mention +Singularity 2045 in a post or comment, send an email to plus@singularity-2045.org, or post tips in the comments here. We also have an action-plan to raise awareness.
◆ ACTION PLAN.
On the 1st day of each month at 20:45 hours (your local time) the goal is to raise Singularity-awareness. Think about the future; upload 20:45 clocks; share a link, or send Singularity messages to friends or strangers. When the clock reaches 20:45 hours (8:45pm), on the 1st day of every month, think about how your life will have changed radically in the year 2045. Take some time to educate people about our amazing AI future. Spread the word on the 1st day of every month, ideally at 20:45 hours.
Example message:
Nanobot revolution, AI aware, technological utopia: Singularity 2045.
◆ EXACT TIME.
Many people are raising awareness all the time, every day of the week, at all hours, and that is fine. The 1st day of the month at 20:45 is a time when you can give extra special focus to Singularity issues.
The year 2045 is our deadline-target but you don't need to raise awareness at 8:45pm exactly. Any time between 20:25 and 20:45 hours on the first day of the month is OK. Due to our busy lives any time on the 1st day of the month is actually OK regarding our monthly awareness thrust.
20:45 hours is merely a guideline. The important thing is to raise awareness. The Singularity could happen earlier than year 2045.
◆ LOCAL TIME.
20:45 hours relates to wherever you are in the world. Your personal time will be the time-zone you use, although if you are raising awareness for someone in a different zone you can send act in relation to their time zone. The choice is yours. Time is relative for each person. All zones are valid because this is a global movement. The Singularity will be a period of enormous change and flexibility, therefore it's appropriate for this awareness campaign to have flexible and inclusive attitudes regarding all time zones.
◆ RAISING AWARENESS.
You don't need to generate awareness on the 1st of every month. Generate Singularity awareness if you feel inspired or if you remember. Relax and go with the flow. Take it easy. Send instant messages, mobile/cell phone messages, emails, comments, word of mouth, or share a link. Whatever you desire will be OK. If you are feeling brave, you can approach a stranger in the street and explain the Singularity to them. Click here to share this page.
◆ UPLOAD YOUR CLOCKS.
Photograph your clock (time display) set to the time of 20:45 and then upload it. Once you've uploaded your 20:45 image, make sure you tag Singularity 2045 in the photo.
◆ WHAT IS THE SINGULARITY?
Think about your current smart device. Now think about a phone from 2010. Smart-phones in the year 2010 were more powerful than average laptops from year 2000, and your current phone or other device is even smarter. Laptops and phones evolve much quicker than humans evolve in ten years. Technology reproduces rapidly.
Technological growth in 2010 was slow compared to the rate in 2020 or 2030. Progress is quicker each year. Technology is growing exponentially. Computer intelligence (the foundation of artificial intelligence) experiences intellectual augmentation yearly. When human level AI is born, perhaps sometime between 2025 and 2035, the pace of technological and scientific development will then become very rapid, reaching a critical mass of explosiveness by 2045 at the latest.
Our world will be very different in the year 2045. In the year 2010 people were becoming aware of speedy technological progress: new developments regarding the internet occur every six months. In the year 2010 the majority of people didn't realise how in 2020 the Internet would be deeply integrating itself into everyday life. In 2013 computers were clearly diverging from their early origins, furthermore 3D-printing was rapidly evolving thus medical biopolymers or sugary foods were printed and NASA was funding food 3D-printing for astronauts; Cornell University also make progress with food-printing. In 2013 artificial intelligence was becoming an accepted fact and steps were made towards incorporating printed electronics into 3D-printers.
Awareness of "exponential growth" is crucial for grasping this issue. Our rate of progress is not linear, we are progressing exponentially. Many people in year 2010 didn't know they would see around 20,000 years of progress (at the 2001 rate) during this century instead of the usual 100 years. The majority of progress will happen upon reaching the Singularity in 2045.
Imagine 20,000 years, at the 2001 rate, on top of what science and technology at the beginning of the 21st century has already achieved. Doubling a century would great. It is difficult to contemplate the awesomeness of 20,000 years condensed into one century. This is the Singularity.
Key Aspects
- Nanotechnology; biotechnology; synthetic biology.
- Nanobots (nanoscale-robots); nano-surgery.
- Matter replicators; molecular assembly; 3D-Printing.
- Artificial Intelligence; neural augmentation.
- Machine learning.
- Wearable computers, wearables.
- Robots.
- Robotics.
- DNA manipulation, genetic engineering, stem cells.
- Space colonization and exploration.
- Augmented reality; virtual reality.
- Cybernetic enhancement.
- Limitless resources.
- Technological utopia.
All disease will be cured. We will live forever, without mind-uploading. We will reconfigure our DNA into any pattern we desire according to our wildest dreams. We will colonize space. The possibilities are limitless. Anything will be possible. Time for utopia. Every passing minute is another chance to turn it all around. Our goal is RAPID GLOBAL AWARENESS regarding how the Singularity will transform the human race.
Year 2045 is our deadline for the Singularity. Heightened awareness ensures the Singularity happens sooner instead of later. Our goal is to make the Singularity happen by 2045 at the latest. The year 2045 is a safe date, the absolute latest date when the Singularity will happen. We hope 2045 will represent a midpoint in the explosion where the explosion has been ongoing for a number of years, or at least 2045 will represent the latest beginning point when the Singularity will occur. Growing awareness feeds back into the system thereby inspiring greater progress and greater investment in sci-tech, thus awareness grows then explodes. We can change the world.
◆ POST-SCARCITY.
Post-Scarcity is an alternate name for the Singularity; these two concepts are simply different viewpoints of the same event. Post-Scarcity is a more socio-economic view, a more sociological view, because it deals more with sociological ramifications instead of merely focusing on the technology.
Our greatest resource is intelligence, it is the source of all resources but currently intelligence is scarce. From explosive intelligence total freedom (limitless resources) will flow. Technology becomes increasingly efficient, which means we have greater power, resources do more for less, prices reduce.
The Singularity is the point where intelligence ceases to be scarce, it's a technological explosion of intelligence to end all aspects of scarcity.
Post-Scarcity is the point where technology explodes intelligently thereby allowing all needs to be fulfilled. All resources will be limitless due to greater access to resources combined with ultra-efficient usage of available resources, thus everything will be free because the only purpose of money is to regulate scarce resources. Follow Post-Scarcity Aware for more info regarding the PS viewpoint.
TIME FOR SINGULARITY 2045