Sunday, 26 June 2011

Intelligence Explosion for Skeptical Dummies.

Singularity by 2045. 

Let's consider how we are likely to see 20,000 years of progress during this century, based on the rate of progress in year 2001. By 2045 everyone will be able to exist self-sufficiently in space. By 2045 I estimate we will have experienced at least 1,000 years of progress.

Consider our current level of technological progress, which is not insignificant. Now think about how much we've discovered during the previous 100 years. Now add 100 years of progress onto what we have already achieved. Now add another 300 years worth of progress. Now add another 100 years and that's only 500 years worth of progress on top of what we've already achieved. Finally you should contemplate adding another 500 years of progress, thus you begin to imagine how radically our world will change by 2045. After 1,000 years worth of progress (based on the 2001 rate of progress) our world will be completely different. In 2045 we will have an IMMENSE level of technological proficiency. Given our current level of technology how far can we progress in 1,000 years based on the 2001 rate of progress?

Very probably we'll experience around 2,000 years worth of progress or more by 2045. The figure of 20,000 years worth of progress during this century is a conservative figure. It's very possible we'll see 30 or 40 thousand years worth of progress during this century. Open your mind! It's not called a technological EXPLOSION of intelligence for nothing. Kaboom!

Year One Thousand Eleven AD.

Imagine going back in time 1,000 years. Imagine questioning a primitive person in the 11th century regarding the futuristic workings of the internet, computers, AI, Stem Cells, regenerative medicine, and nanotechnology. How would a primitive person explain it? Prior to aeroplanes being created (when humans initially dreamt of artificial flight), if you asked primitive humans to explain how man will one day fly, the primitives would possibly reply by stating man will fly similar to how birds fly.

How will people will one day travel at the speed of light? To explain this I'd say light speed travel will happen similar to how photons do it. We looked at birds and imagined artificial flight, thus we can look at light and imagine super-fast light-speed travel. From our primitive viewpoint it can be difficult to describe the details of the future; our difficulty in describing the precise details of the future is comparable to how a person 1,000 years ago would experience difficulty explaining our current technological proficiency. In general terms we can explain futuristic situations but we cannot explain the precise details yet. If we could explain the precise terms of future inventions then those futuristic inventions and discoveries would already exist.

In the future there will be no limits regarding the application of our intelligence. If you cannot see how the rate of technological progress is accelerating you can at least see how one billion years from now intelligent beings will overcome ALL of our current problems such as hunger and poverty. During the past 10 years (since 2001) we've already progressed rapidly. 2001 seems a lifetime ago. Did you know YouTube was only created in 2005?

Petty limitations will NOT exist forever. Do you really think super-intelligent beings will be constrained for all eternity by idiotic monetary, conflict, hunger, death, or speed of light restrictions?

If you can't see how everything will be free for everyone in the year 2045 you can surely appreciate how everything will be free for all the ultra-weirdly-evolved-beings one billion years from now? Once you can see how everything will be free in the at some point in the future you are a step closer to seeing how the point of freedom could easily be 2045. Do you realize the first successful aeroplane was created only 108 years ago? 108 years ago the first airplane was created and now we have the International Space Station.


Many people are unaware regarding what an explosion actually is. People fail to understand how our rate of progress is accelerating. You do know what an explosion is? Think about explosions. People call the Singularity an explosion of intelligence but they often don't appreciate what an explosion is. Understandably people fail to grasp exponential growth regarding the Singularity. Exponential growth can be deceptive. It's tricky because the main part of the growth happens very suddenly during later stages. Exponential growth can be misleading because during early stages the growth is very slow, slower than linear. The curve is almost horizontal for a long time but then it explodes.


Some people say the universe contains a finite amount of energy, but if this is true then I wonder what's beyond the universe? Surely reality will not stop at the edge of the universe akin to a flat-Earth where if you travel far enough you fall off the edge of the world. Before we exhaust the alleged finite energy in this universe we will easily create new universes if needed. Within an infinite universe (or infinite finite-universes) I'm sure there will be infinite resources and energy thus financial costs will be zero. We are approaching Post-Scarcity. Creating new universes will be easy for supremely advanced beings, but our own universe has plentiful resources. Did you know 30 million times the sun's mass in chromium (that's about 10 trillion times the mass of Earth) has been discovered in space, and the search is only just beginning. To help you contemplate the massive size of the universe here are two videos from NASA:

Intelligence allows people to do more for less thus via our increasing intelligence more resources will become available for us to do greater things. There will be a vast surplus of resources due to the ultra efficiency of extreme intelligence. IBM wants to create sugar-cube sized supercomputers that run on minimal power and they expect to do this by 2021. Think about the massive processing speeds which will use minimal resources in 2045, and then you will see why there will be zero cost, Post-Scarcity.

Prior to explosions you don't see much evidence indicating things are about to explode, unless of course you have sharp insight. Explosions often surprise people. This is why the Singularity is called an intelligence explosion; the growth is very abrupt, very rapid. We are dealing with the most powerful form of explosive matter, intelligence. Intelligence has impacted with extreme power upon our world. Everything we create arises from our intelligence. Thankfully extreme intelligence is creative instead of destructive because we are a becoming more intelligent. Our knowledge is accelerating.


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